Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-09 · 14:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:5 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.09 – 2.31 Celtic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 16.5% | 13.3% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.2% | 18.5% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Celtic win | 64.3% | 68.2% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 65.8% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.2% | 45.1% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 56.8% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 45.0% | -2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kilmarnock 44.5 / Celtic 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.