Hearts vs Dundee Utd
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-09 · 16:00 CET
LWWWW
LLWLDThe score model made a Hearts win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hearts 1.84 – 0.81 Dundee Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 61.6% | 56.5% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Dundee Utd win | 15.8% | 20.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 55.6% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 34.4% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 54.8% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 38.2% | -9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hearts 44.5 / Dundee Utd 39.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.