Dundee FC vs Aberdeen
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WWLDL
WLLLDThe score model made a Dundee FC win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee FC 1.49 – 1.21 Aberdeen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee FC win | 43.3% | 35.1% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 28.1% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Aberdeen win | 30.5% | 36.8% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 51.2% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 30.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 56.6% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 34.8% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee FC 42.2 / Aberdeen 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.