Celtic vs Dundee FC
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-03 · 20:30 CET
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WWLDLThe score model made a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 83%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celtic 3.17 – 0.79 Dundee FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 83.2% | 79.0% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.0% | 13.2% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Dundee FC win | 5.9% | 7.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.6% | 70.3% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55.9% | 50.3% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 51.1% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.6% | 48.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celtic 44.3 / Dundee FC 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.