St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-02 · 15:00 CET
LLDWL
LLLLDThe score model made a St Johnstone win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 4:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Johnstone 1.34 – 1.23 Kilmarnock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone win | 38.8% | 41.8% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Kilmarnock win | 33.7% | 30.3% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 51.2% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 30.5% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 56.2% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 34.3% | -4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St Johnstone 18.6 / Kilmarnock 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.