Hibernian vs Motherwell
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-02 · 17:30 CET
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WDDWLThe score model made a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hibernian 1.53 – 1.06 Motherwell.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 47.6% | 41.4% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 28.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Motherwell win | 25.9% | 30.2% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 49.3% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 28.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 54.9% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 33.4% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hibernian 44.2 / Motherwell 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.