Dundee Utd vs Rangers
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-07-31 · 21:00 CET
LLWLD
LWWWWThe score model made a Rangers win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee Utd 1.16 – 1.87 Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd win | 23.1% | 17.3% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 21.4% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Rangers win | 53.8% | 61.3% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 62.5% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 41.8% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 59.0% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | 42.4% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee Utd 39.2 / Rangers 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.