Forfar Athletic vs Annan
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LWLLL
WLLLLThe score model made a Forfar Athletic win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 1.34 – 1.05 Annan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic win | 42.4% | 31.1% | +11.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Annan win | 28.6% | 40.6% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 50.4% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 29.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 55.2% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 35.3% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forfar Athletic 48.9 / Annan 30.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forfar Athletic vs Annan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.