Elgin City vs Stranraer
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LLWWD
WWDWWThe score model made an Elgin City win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:5 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elgin City 1.40 – 1.06 Stranraer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin City win | 43.9% | 43.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Stranraer win | 27.7% | 29.6% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 53.5% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 33.1% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 56.9% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 37.7% | -5.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elgin City 47.5 / Stranraer 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Elgin City vs Stranraer in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.