Dumbarton vs Spartans
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LWWLD
WLLWLThe score model made a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.21 – 1.63 Spartans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 27.6% | 23.2% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 23.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Spartans win | 46.4% | 53.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 61.5% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 41.4% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 61.5% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 42.4% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dumbarton 36.4 / Spartans 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dumbarton vs Spartans in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.