Stranraer vs Spartans
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LWDWW
DLDDWThe score model made a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stranraer 1.08 – 1.29 Spartans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer win | 30.1% | 34.3% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 26.7% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Spartans win | 40.0% | 39.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 53.7% | -11.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 32.9% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 57.3% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 36.3% | -9.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stranraer 45.7 / Spartans 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.