Forfar Athletic vs Stirling
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made a Forfar Athletic win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 1.48 – 1.09 Stirling.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic win | 45.2% | 38.5% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Stirling win | 26.8% | 33.8% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 50.8% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 30.2% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 55.6% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 35.1% | +4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forfar Athletic 47.4 / Stirling 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.