Dumbarton vs Edinburgh City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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DWWDLThe score model made a Dumbarton win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.78 – 1.28 Edinburgh City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 48.2% | 43.0% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Edinburgh City win | 26.8% | 30.4% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 52.9% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 32.5% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 56.5% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 36.5% | +4.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dumbarton 34 / Edinburgh City 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.