Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
DWDWL
DWLDLThe score model made an Elgin City win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elgin City 1.31 – 1.07 Forfar Athletic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin City win | 40.7% | 47.5% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 27.4% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Forfar Athletic win | 29.1% | 25.1% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 49.2% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 29.1% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 52.6% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 34.1% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elgin City 45.6 / Forfar Athletic 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.