Dumbarton vs Clyde
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WLLLW
LWWDWThe score model made a Clyde win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.33 – 1.55 Clyde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 31.4% | 26.0% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Clyde win | 41.5% | 47.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 53.9% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 33.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 56.9% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 37.2% | +3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dumbarton 33.6 / Clyde 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.