Annan vs Spartans
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-01 · 16:00 CET
WLLWL
DLDDWThe score model made a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annan 1.27 – 1.48 Spartans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan win | 31.4% | 30.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Spartans win | 40.6% | 43.2% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 51.9% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 31.4% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 56.0% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 35.6% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Annan 27 / Spartans 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.