Hamilton vs Queen of South
League One, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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LWWLWThe score model made a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamilton 1.97 – 0.97 Queen of South.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton win | 59.4% | 71.7% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 18.0% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Queen of South win | 16.9% | 10.3% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 60.5% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 40.5% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 49.3% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 41.5% | -4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hamilton 36.1 / Queen of South 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hamilton vs Queen of South in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.