East Fife vs Montrose
League One, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
WLLDWThe score model made a Montrose win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: East Fife 1.32 – 1.35 Montrose.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Fife win | 34.9% | 38.1% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 29.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Montrose win | 36.3% | 32.0% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 45.3% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 25.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 50.8% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 32.5% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: East Fife 28.5 / Montrose 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open East Fife vs Montrose in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.