Peterhead vs East Fife
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
WWLDL
WLDDDThe score model made a Peterhead win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Peterhead 1.46 – 1.18 East Fife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterhead win | 42.1% | 48.0% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| East Fife win | 29.4% | 24.9% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 48.1% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 27.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 51.1% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 32.4% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Peterhead 28.1 / East Fife 25.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.