Alloa vs Montrose
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LWWDD
LLWWWThe score model made an Alloa win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alloa 1.90 – 1.15 Montrose.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa win | 53.8% | 43.6% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.4% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Montrose win | 21.7% | 29.0% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 51.6% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 30.5% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 55.5% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 35.5% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alloa 48 / Montrose 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.