Queen of South vs Peterhead
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LLLLW
WWLDLThe score model made a Queen of South win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen of South 2.01 – 1.17 Peterhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of South win | 55.6% | 35.5% | +20.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 27.2% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Peterhead win | 20.5% | 37.3% | -16.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 54.5% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 33.8% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 58.7% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 37.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Queen of South 45.9 / Peterhead 27.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.