Hamilton vs Alloa
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WWDWW
LWWDDThe score model made a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamilton 1.59 – 1.17 Alloa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton win | 45.4% | 55.5% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Alloa win | 26.7% | 19.5% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 50.4% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 29.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 50.7% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 34.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hamilton 33.9 / Alloa 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.