East Fife vs Cove Rangers
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WLDDD
LLWLDThe score model made a Cove Rangers win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: East Fife 0.94 – 1.50 Cove Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Fife win | 22.1% | 42.3% | -20.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 28.6% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Cove Rangers win | 48.6% | 29.1% | +19.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 46.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 26.6% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 51.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 32.2% | +0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: East Fife 24.6 / Cove Rangers 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.