Alloa vs East Fife
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-01 · 16:00 CET
LWWDD
WLDDDThe score model made an Alloa win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alloa 1.85 – 0.86 East Fife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa win | 59.5% | 47.2% | +12.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.4% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| East Fife win | 15.8% | 26.5% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 51.1% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 30.6% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 54.4% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 35.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alloa 47.4 / East Fife 24 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.