Morton vs Stenhousemuir
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LLWWW
LDLLLThe score model makes a Stenhousemuir win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.8% vs 74.3% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Morton 1.12 – 1.19 Stenhousemuir.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morton win | 32.2% | 35.1% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 32.1% | 28.1% | +4.1% |
| Stenhousemuir win | 35.6% | 36.8% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 45.9% | -5.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 25.7% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.6% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 31.3% | -3.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Morton 48.9 / Stenhousemuir 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Morton vs Stenhousemuir in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.