Inverness vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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LLDWWThe score model makes a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.8% vs 70.0% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inverness 1.10 – 1.25 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness win | 30.5% | 35.4% | -4.9% |
| Draw | 31.7% | 28.9% | +2.8% |
| Livingston win | 37.8% | 35.7% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 49.7% | -7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 30.0% | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 54.8% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 34.5% | -5.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Inverness 18.8 / Livingston 22.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inverness vs Livingston in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.