Arbroath vs Ayr
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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LWDLWThe score model makes an Ayr win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.4% vs 74.5% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arbroath 1.12 – 1.26 Ayr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath win | 30.7% | 31.8% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 31.6% | 29.8% | +1.8% |
| Ayr win | 37.7% | 38.4% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 44.6% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 25.5% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.8% | -0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 30.8% | -1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Arbroath 38.7 / Ayr 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Arbroath vs Ayr in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.