Raith vs Dunfermline
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
WWDLW
DDWWWThe score model makes a Raith win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Raith win — 40.8% vs 34.4% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Raith 1.28 – 1.00 Dunfermline.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raith win | 40.8% | 34.4% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 32.0% | 30.0% | +1.9% |
| Dunfermline win | 27.2% | 35.5% | -8.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 43.7% | -3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 24.4% | -4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 50.5% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.3% | 29.8% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Raith 48.9 / Dunfermline 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Raith vs Dunfermline in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.