Raith vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-25 · 20:45 CET
LWWDL
LLDWWThe score model made a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Raith 1.13 – 1.19 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith win | 32.2% | 38.1% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.3% | 28.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Livingston win | 35.5% | 33.6% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 49.9% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 29.0% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 54.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 33.5% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Raith 46.6 / Livingston 17.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Raith vs Livingston in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.