Inverness vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-25 · 20:45 CET
WWLWW
LLLWWThe score model made an Inverness win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inverness 1.64 – 0.95 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness win | 51.7% | 69.8% | -18.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 19.7% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Morton win | 20.0% | 10.5% | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 53.7% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 32.7% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 44.8% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 36.8% | -9.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inverness 14.3 / Morton 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Inverness vs Morton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.