Dunfermline vs Partick Thistle
Championship, Scotland · 2026-10-20 · 20:45 CET
DDWWW
WWDWLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunfermline 0.96 – 1.04 Partick Thistle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline win | 30.1% | 32.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 35.4% | 28.8% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Partick Thistle win | 34.4% | 38.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.5% | 48.1% | -15.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 27.9% | -13.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.3% | 53.9% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 32.9% | -9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunfermline 44.4 / Partick Thistle 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dunfermline vs Partick Thistle in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.