Queen's Park vs Ayr
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-18 · 20:30 CET
LLWLL
WLWDLThe score model made a Queen's Park win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen's Park 1.24 – 1.19 Ayr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park win | 35.2% | 28.5% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 29.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Ayr win | 33.2% | 42.4% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 45.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 25.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 51.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 31.2% | +5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Queen's Park 47.3 / Ayr 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Queen's Park vs Ayr in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.