Raith vs Ayr
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DWWLW
DLDLLThe score model made a Raith win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Raith 1.52 – 1.11 Ayr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith win | 44.4% | 47.7% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 27.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Ayr win | 25.4% | 24.5% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 45.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 25.3% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 49.5% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 31.2% | +4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Raith 44.8 / Ayr 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.