Morton vs Arbroath
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
LDWWDThe score model made a Morton win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Morton 1.31 – 1.03 Arbroath.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton win | 40.6% | 25.1% | +15.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.5% | 28.7% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Arbroath win | 26.9% | 46.2% | -19.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 43.3% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 23.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 48.8% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 29.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Morton 44.9 / Arbroath 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.