Livingston vs Dunfermline
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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DDLWDThe score model made a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Livingston 1.42 – 0.73 Dunfermline.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston win | 51.2% | 52.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.8% | 25.5% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Dunfermline win | 17.0% | 22.2% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 51.1% | -14.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.0% | 30.4% | -13.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.4% | 52.7% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 35.1% | -3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Livingston 13.5 / Dunfermline 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.