Dunfermline vs Ayr
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
DDLWD
DLDLLThe score model made a Dunfermline win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.32 – 1.03 Ayr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline win | 41.1% | 44.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 28.7% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Ayr win | 27.0% | 26.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 44.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 24.6% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 49.7% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 30.7% | +2.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunfermline 45.9 / Ayr 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.