Partick Thistle vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-07 · 20:30 CET
WDDWW
WLWLLThe score model made a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Partick Thistle 1.03 – 1.16 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick Thistle win | 29.9% | 39.9% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.6% | 28.4% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Livingston win | 36.5% | 31.7% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% | 51.6% | -14.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.9% | 31.6% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 57.0% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 35.2% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Partick Thistle 46.9 / Livingston 12.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.