Morton vs Partick Thistle
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-01 · 16:00 CET
LLDLL
WDDWWThe score model made a Partick Thistle win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Morton 1.10 – 1.44 Partick Thistle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton win | 26.9% | 17.5% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 23.2% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Partick Thistle win | 42.7% | 59.2% | -16.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 54.8% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 33.9% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 52.6% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 37.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Morton 44.9 / Partick Thistle 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.