Ayr vs Arbroath
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-01 · 16:00 CET
DLDLL
LDWWDThe score model made an Ayr win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ayr 1.51 – 1.01 Arbroath.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr win | 46.8% | 38.6% | +8.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 30.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Arbroath win | 23.3% | 31.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 40.6% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 21.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 47.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 28.3% | +0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ayr 44.8 / Arbroath 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.