Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-05 · 18:00 CET
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DWWLWThe score model makes an Al Kholood win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Al Khaleej win — 34.3% vs 27.4% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Kholood 1.37 – 1.31 Al Khaleej.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kholood win | 37.2% | 45.6% | -8.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.0% | +1.5% |
| Al Khaleej win | 34.3% | 27.4% | +6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 50.7% | -0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 30.3% | -2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 54.4% | +1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 34.1% | +0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Kholood 40.8 / Al Khaleej 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.