Al Ittihad vs Neom SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-05 · 18:00 CET
WLWWD
DLLWWThe score model makes an Al Ittihad win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.2% vs 61.3% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 1.64 – 1.07 Neom SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad win | 49.6% | 47.6% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 24.9% | +2.1% |
| Neom SC win | 23.4% | 27.5% | -4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 57.9% | -7.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 38.7% | -9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 59.2% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 39.7% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Ittihad 47.8 / Neom SC 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Ittihad vs Neom SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.