Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-05 · 18:00 CET
LWLLL
WDLWLThe score model makes an Al Fateh win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.9% vs 63.6% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Fateh 1.58 – 1.19 Al Riyadh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Fateh win | 45.0% | 45.0% | +0.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.4% | +2.1% |
| Al Riyadh win | 27.5% | 29.6% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 55.6% | -3.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 36.4% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 57.7% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 38.3% | -6.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Fateh 49.1 / Al Riyadh 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.