Abha vs Al Shabab
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-05 · 18:00 CET
DLLLD
DWDWWThe score model makes an Al Shabab win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.5% vs 61.3% implied (+11.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Abha 0.97 – 1.68 Al Shabab.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abha win | 20.4% | 25.0% | -4.6% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 24.3% | +2.3% |
| Al Shabab win | 53.0% | 50.7% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 57.8% | -8.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 38.7% | -11.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 58.8% | -7.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 39.4% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Abha 16.8 / Al Shabab 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Abha vs Al Shabab in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.