Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiya
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-29 · 19:00 CET
DWDLW
WWDLWThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:6 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.02 – 1.67 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh win | 22.0% | 11.6% | +10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 16.9% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Al Qadisiya win | 51.2% | 71.5% | -20.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 66.9% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 46.3% | -18.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 55.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 45.6% | -14.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Riyadh 44.3 / Al Qadisiya 13.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiya in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.