Al Qadisiya vs Al Hilal
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-23 · 20:00 CET
WWDLW
LWWWWThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Qadisiya 1.08 – 1.75 Al Hilal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Qadisiya win | 22.1% | 30.8% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 24.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Al Hilal win | 51.9% | 45.0% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 65.7% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 45.1% | -13.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 66.4% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 45.5% | -9.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Qadisiya 14 / Al Hilal 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Qadisiya vs Al Hilal in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.