Al Qadisiya vs Al Ahli SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-08 · 20:00 CET
WWDLW
WLLWLThe score model made an Al Ahli SC win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Qadisiya 1.09 – 1.35 Al Ahli SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Qadisiya win | 29.1% | 45.8% | -16.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.7% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Al Ahli SC win | 41.5% | 28.5% | +13.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 59.4% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 38.6% | -15.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 61.9% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 40.8% | -13.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Qadisiya 15.3 / Al Ahli SC 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.