Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-25 · 20:00 CET
LDDDL
LDWLDThe score model made an Al Shabab win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.88 – 1.02 Al Riyadh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab win | 56.9% | 55.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 23.5% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Al Riyadh win | 19.8% | 20.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 58.8% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 37.7% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 58.2% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 39.9% | -2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Shabab 44.2 / Al Riyadh 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.