Al Ettifaq vs Al Nassr
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-25 · 20:00 CET
WLLWD
WWWLWThe score model made an Al Nassr win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ettifaq 1.02 – 2.27 Al Nassr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ettifaq win | 15.2% | 10.6% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.6% | 15.1% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Al Nassr win | 65.3% | 74.3% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 72.4% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 53.2% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 58.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 50.7% | -12.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ettifaq 44.2 / Al Nassr 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.