Neom SC vs Al Qadisiya
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-24 · 18:40 CET
WLLWW
WWDLWThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neom SC 0.98 – 1.37 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neom SC win | 26.1% | 19.2% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 22.1% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Al Qadisiya win | 45.5% | 58.7% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 62.3% | -20.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 41.5% | -20.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 59.6% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 42.3% | -18.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Neom SC 25.4 / Al Qadisiya 15.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.