Al Ittihad vs Al Hazem
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-24 · 20:00 CET
WWDWW
LLDDWThe score model made an Al Ittihad win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 2.15 – 0.93 Al Hazem.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad win | 65.0% | 62.0% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 20.7% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Al Hazem win | 14.7% | 17.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 61.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 40.3% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 57.4% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 41.6% | -4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ittihad 44.3 / Al Hazem 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.